Currency Markets: Monetary Policy Divergence (EUR/USD)

I think that even if the Federal Reserve hikes again in a couple of weeks they're nearing the end of their tightening cycle and you know even though the Federal Reserve claimed to be data dependent and they hike interest rates despite the fact that the data was much weaker than they thought, I think the markets are starting to look beyond the hikes to the cuts. I think we're getting ready to start a new easing cycle and on the other side of the Atlantic the ECB is getting ready to end their easing cycle and to begin tightening so I think the currency markets are more looking at that policy divergence than whether or not Trump is going to get any anything through Congress.

Gold & Gold Stocks Will Move Higher

When the Federal Reserve raises rates in June, if they raise rates in June, Gold is going to take off. If they don't raise interest rates in June then it's going to explode even higher and of course you know you're going to see an even bigger move in the gold stocks. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Bitcoin Is A Speculative Asset, A Bubble

I don't think something like Bitcoin is ever going to succeed at being money. It's not going to be used as a medium of exchange as a store of value but what it is now is a speculative asset. People are buying it, it's appreciating and the people that own it on paper are making money and some of them are actually cashing out and making real money but the majority of the paper wealth that's been accumulated is still sitting there. But you do have people that are coming in and buying at these high prices. Ultimately the bubble is going to pop and the things are going to come crashing down, the question is how much bigger is this bubble going to get? Have we already seen the peak or is this going to be the biggest bubble of all time?

The U.S. Dollar Index May Drop To 60

The U.S. Dollar Index closed at a new low for the year solidly below 97.00.  We closed at 96.67, I think the key level is 92 which is the low from May of last year but once we break through that and I think there'll be some support around that level, but once we break through 92 we're making room for 80 and that is a pretty big drop. I think that can happen in a short period of time. 

Probably, of course, 80.00 is not the bottom because 70 was the low in summer of 2008 but then you know the dollar got Saved by the Bell by the financial crisis. Ain't going to happen again the next crisis is the US Dollar so we're going to take out 70.00, we're going to go to 60.00 and then we are below 60.00 I think is when we're going to have a crisis. Now who knows where gold is going to be by then, I think gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) is going to be much much higher.

The Trump Trade Unraveled A Bit

The Trump trade unraveled a bit. Remember early in the Trump trade you had a strong dollar the US Dollar has surrendered a hundred percent of its gains post Trump's election and so year-to-date even though the S&P 500 Index is up, priced in gold the S&P 500 Index is actually down. And if you compare the US stock market to other stock markets around the world the US stock market is one of the worst performing markets in the world so it doesn't sound like the Trump trade is working it sounds like the trades that are working are buying gold and buying foreign stocks. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM))

Gold Stocks: Investors Are Not Believing In The Gold Rally

Gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) continues to rise. It was up again today (yesterday). This is the highest gold has been since, I think, mid April we got above 1270.00 intraday, and we closed just a hair below it. 

But continuing the trend gold stocks were down. I think that Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was barely positive today (yesterday), the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)  was down again. 

So gold stocks continued to trade weak in the face of rising gold prices and again what this has been telling me because this has been going on now for quite some time, is that the investors do not believe this rally because if they believed it they would be bidding up gold stocks.