Nov 30, 2015

The Manufacturing Recession Is Already Here

We got 52.6 on the Manufacturing PMI and that was the lowest number in 2 years. I have been talking about this for a long time on the podcast. The manufacturing recession is already here.

The mainstream will acknowledge this but they do not even think it matters. They think that manufacturing is so small a part of the economy that it does not really matter. Admitting that is such a small part of the economy is part of the problem. It cannot be a small part of the economy! The fact that it is a small part of the economy is a problem in and of itself.

Nov 27, 2015

A Bullish Case For Gold

Gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) failed to rally in the wake of the terrorist attack so the shorts came back in. But everybody has piled short as they are all waiting for the Federal Reserve to hike rates. This is the most anticipated rate hike in the history of interest rate hikes and again one and done is not gonna cut it. The Federal Reserve is going to need to raise interest rates substantially to validate this move in the dollar but they can`t. They can`t validate it because any significant move up in interest rates would precipitate a financial crisis.

Nov 26, 2015

We Are Going To Be Back In Official Recession Or Close Enough Soon

Long before the Federal Reserve gets to 1.00% rates if they actually start in December, we are going to be back in official recession or close enough to it that the Federal Reserve is going to have to stimulate the economy again.

December Meeting: A Rate Hike If The Market Is Near Record Highs

If the market is near record highs in the day before the meeting (in December) and it looks like as if everybody is OK with a tiny interest rate hike, they might do it.

Tickers: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ)

Nov 25, 2015

Industrial Production: More Signs Of A Recession

Industrial Production, this is the 9th monthly drop in the last 10 months. This is the weakest this series has been since January 2010. How many signs of a recession does the Federal Reserve need?

Nov 24, 2015

The Safest Thing For The Federal Reserve To Do

The safest thing for the Federal reserve to do given the game that they are playing is to not raise interest rates in December and keep pretending that they are going to. Because so far, so good. It is working like a charm!

Nov 23, 2015

Empire State Manufacturing: Biggest Losing Streak Outside of a Recession

This is the fourth straight month in a row that it`s been down and all of the components were very weak. This is the biggest losing streak for this index outside of a recession. So, maybe we are in a recession and that is why we are getting readings that are consistent with a recession or the recovery is so weak that its like a recession.

Nov 21, 2015

The Federal Reserve Will Find An Excuse Not To Raise Rates

With the Dollar rallying, commodity prices falling, the Federal Reserve has another reason to say, Well, you know, inflation is too low, we do not have meet our inflation goal and it can easily get away without raising interest rates in December.

Nov 20, 2015

China Is Accumulating Gold Quietly and Secretly

I think China is deliberately underreporting their gold holdings. I think they are accumulating more and more gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)), quietly and maybe secretly because I do think that ultimately that is their intention, to have a gold backed Yuan becoming the predominant currency in the world.

Nov 19, 2015

Fed: The Only Reason They May Raise Interest Rates

If they are really dependent on the economic data, its all been bad. The data has been consistently bad. If they are really data dependent they should not be raising interest rates.

The only reason they may raise interest rates is because they feel they have to because they are worried that the market might begin to get suspicious of the game they are playing if they do not move.

Nov 18, 2015

Dip In Gold Is A Buying Opportunity

The price of gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) has fallen back below 1100 dollars. In fact the price of gold has declined almost one hundred dollars in the last 30 days. We are back down in the vicinity of the August low. I think this is an opportunity for those who thought that the rally was getting away from you.

Nov 17, 2015

The Case Against A December Rate Hike

Is the Federal Reserve really going to raise rates in December? If they do hike rates and the economy falls apart, they are going to say, "You see, they hiked rates, they did it, they ruined the economy! The Fed did a mistake by raising interest rates."

They do not want to risk that. If they never raised rates and the economy turns down, they will think they were smart.

The Fed Is About To Run Into A Brick Wall

Recessions do not start with layoffs. First the economy turns down and then companies layoff. Companies do not just start laying off people for no reason. Employees react to the recession. The economy turns down, sales turn down, and then businesses start to lay off. Then these layoffs make the existing recession even worse.

You can`t just look at the unemployment numbers and make monetary policy from that as if that is the data that really counts. The Federal Reserve wants to make economic policy looking into the rearview mirror. They are about to run into a brick wall!

Nov 16, 2015

Economic Data Is Consistent With The Beginning Of A Recession

The economic data is awful. This data is consistent with the beginning of a recession. This is when the Federal Reserve typically would be easing monetary policy but the problem is they never tightened. The recession has already started and they never finished fighting the last one.

U.S. Economy: All Of The Evidence Is Flashing Recession

All of the evidence is flashing recession. The consumers are running out of money, the inventories are piling up unsold on the shelves, retail sales are plunging, retailers stocks are crashing. The recession is beginning if it hash`t already begun.

Stocks: Major Retailers Are Selling Off

All these stocks are going down, even the high end. Look at Tiffany (TIF), it is trading at a 52 week low. All the major retailers are hitting multi year lows.

Related stocks: Macys (M), Wal-Mart (WMT), Nordstrom (JWN)

Nov 13, 2015

Retailers: Weak, Weak Sales Across The Board!

Think about this. We are getting Wal-Mart (WMT) which is the mass retailer where everyone is shopping on a budget. They had horrible numbers.

Then you have probably the largest department store, Macy`s (M), which is, you know, not high end but higher end, kind of mid-market, nicer stuff, more expensive stuff than Wal-Mart (WMT). They had horrible numbers.

And then you have Neiman Marcus which is the high end, probably the biggest high end retailer in the country, they had horrible numbers too!

Its across the board weak, weak sales!

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Nov 12, 2015

A Buying Opportunity In Gold & Gold Stocks

These currency speculators really believe the Federal Reserve and they just sold off the price of gold, they brought down the price of gold stocks. That is an opportunity, that is a buying opportunity for the few people that actually recognize what is really going on.

Stocks: Goldcorp (GG), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX)

ETF`s: Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

We Are Headed For A Crisis

I think the way this bubble is going to deflate is that the Federal Reserve is not going to be able to raise interest rates and investors are eventually going to figure out that predicament because of the Fed`s failure to act. And the U.S. Dollar is going to ultimately turn around, take the bond market with it, push up consumer prices, push up interest rates and really put the squeeze on the economy even further.

If the Federal Reserve actually tries to raise interest rates, then they are just going to prick the bubble much faster. So either way the air is going to come out and we are headed for a crisis.

Peter Schiff is an American businessman, investment broker and financial commentator. Schiff is the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc.

Nov 11, 2015

Federal Reserve, Interest Rates & Stock Market

If the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates in December the markets may not have a good reaction. What will the Fed do then to stop the markets from bleeding?

The Fed Will Not Raise Rates In December

The Federal Reserve will probably not raise interest rates in December but Wall Street is increasingly expecting a rate hike in the December meeting, says peter Schiff.

Nov 10, 2015

Why The Big U.S. Banks Are Vulnerable

Peter Schiff explains why the big banks are very vulnerable now as they are highly leveraged.

Related banking stocks: Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C)

What Will Happen When The Fed Raises Interest Rates

Peter Schiff explains what will happen if the Federal Reserve finally decides to raise interest rates.

Nov 9, 2015

Why Is The Fed So Afraid Of Raising Rates

The Federal Reserve is very afraid of raising interest rates because it may ignite a stock market sell-off, says Peter Schiff.

Nov 6, 2015

Rate Hikes Only After A Dollar Crisis

We will only have an interest rate hike after we have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis, says Peter Schiff.

Nov 5, 2015

The Big Banks Are Even More Vulnerable Now

The big banks are even more vulnerable now as they are highly leveraged, says Peter Schiff.

Stocks: Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C)

Nov 4, 2015

Gold Should Not Be Compared To Stocks

Gold should not be compared to stocks as an investment. Gold is money and it should be compared to fiat currencies. Your savings should be in gold and not in fiat currencies like the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen or the British Pound, says Peter Schiff.

U.S. Stocks Are Very Expensive

U.S. stocks are very expensive right now while gold and gold mining stocks are cheap, says Peter Schiff. (Newmont Mining (NEM), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG))

Nov 3, 2015

Federal Reserve: Investors Are Not Really Understanding The Game

Investors are still struggling to understand the extend and pretend game the Federal Reserve is playing, says Peter Schiff.

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